Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
Estimates indicate that approximately 28 million people in Afghanistan lived in poverty in 2025, with the return of 2.9 million Afghans that year pushing an additional 1.4 million into hardship. Population growth reached 6.5 percent, leading to a 2.1 percent decline in real GDP per capita, despite a 1.9 percent expansion in overall GDP.
Millions of families face significant difficulties accessing essentials such as water, food, healthcare, housing, heating, and clothing. Over 80 percent of households are reportedly in debt, and nearly 75 percent rely on adverse coping mechanisms. The influx of returnees—nearly five million since 2023—has further strained communities already under economic pressure. Among recent returnees, 92 percent reported being unable to secure basic necessities, compared to 74 percent nationally. Formal employment is scarce, with only 3 percent holding such jobs and 78 percent relying on casual day labor in provinces receiving the most returnees.
Climate shocks have intensified, with drought affecting 64 percent of the country in 2025 and access to adequate drinking water dropping to 44 percent from 59 percent in 2024. Additionally, ongoing restrictions on women and girls continue to negatively impact the economy and workforce, with nearly 100 decrees limiting their employment, education, and freedom of movement.
Afghanistan's trade deficit rose to a record $11.3 billion in 2025, about 60 percent of nominal GDP, driven by higher imports and stagnant exports. Declining international aid has compounded the crisis; total aid fell by 16.5 percent in 2025 amid growing needs, forcing over 440 clinics to close or reduce services.