Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
Researchers have developed an enhanced model to predict outcomes in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), a condition marked by thickened heart muscle that can block blood flow and cause dangerous arrhythmias. According to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), HCM affects about 1 in 500 individuals and is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death.
The study, partly funded by the NIH's National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), was published in JAMA and included nearly 2,700 patients from 44 expert sites in North America and Europe, followed for an average of seven years. Researchers gathered clinical histories, conducted blood tests for biomarkers such as NTproBNP, performed contrast-enhanced cardiac MRI, and carried out genetic testing to assess risk.
This model combines these data sources to predict a range of adverse cardiac events beyond sudden cardiac death, including heart failure, nonfatal arrhythmias, and the need for device implantation or heart transplantation. Several predictors—such as heart muscle scarring, heart function, patient weight, history of heart failure, and elevated blood biomarker levels—were linked to both fatal and nonfatal outcomes.
Christopher Kramer, M.D., principal investigator and cardiologist at the University of Virginia Health System, noted that existing guidelines mostly address sudden cardiac death. This new approach advances risk assessment by integrating more methods to improve prediction of a broader range of adverse outcomes in people with HCM.